Neath and Swansea East
Official Parliament web pageCurrent MP
Name: Carolyn Harris
Party: Labour
Official Parliament web page
Who Can I Vote For?
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2029 election
No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.
Projections
| Projection | Projected result | Description |
|---|---|---|
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 37.0%; PC: 20.0%; Lab: 15.0%; Cons: 12.0% |
| More in Common January 2026 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 35.0%; Lab: 24.0%; PC: 21.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 36.0%; Lab: 19.0%; PC: 14.0% |
| YouGov September 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 33.0%; Lab: 25.0%; PC: 17.0% |
| More in Common September 2025 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 43.0%; Lab: 27.0% |
| More in Common July 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 26.0%; Lab: 23.0%; PC: 22.0%; Other: 11.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 40.0%; Lab: 25.0%; PC: 13.0% |
| YouGov June 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 34.0%; Lab: 26.0%; PC: 18.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 28.0%; Lab: 24.0%; Cons: 16.0%; PC: 15.0% |
| More in Common April 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 36.0%; Lab: 24.0%; Cons: 16.0%; PC: 15.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 33.0%; Lab: 26.0%; PC: 19.0%; Cons: 11.0% |
| Focaldata Jan 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 33.0%; Lab: 32.0%; PC: 12.0% |
| More in Common Dec 2024 | Safe Lab | Victory chances: Lab: 98.4% |
2024 results
Winning party: Labour
Majority: 6627 (16.51%)
Turnout: 52.61%
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carolyn Harris | Labour Party | 16797 | 41.8% |
| Dai Richards | Reform UK | 10170 | 25.3% |
| Andrew John Jenkins | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | 5350 | 13.3% |
| Samantha Nida Chohan | Conservative and Unionist Party | 3765 | 9.4% |
| Helen Ceri Clarke | Liberal Democrats | 2344 | 5.8% |
| Jan Dowden | Green Party | 1711 | 4.3% |
More details on "Who Can I Vote For?"
2019 notional results
(See the about page for more information about the nature of these results.)
Winning party: Labour
Majority: 8451 (18.85%)
Turnout: 60%
| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 21102 | 47.1% |
| Conservative | 12651 | 28.2% |
| Reform UK | 3965 | 8.8% |
| Plaid Cymru | 3820 | 8.5% |
| Liberal Democrats | 1849 | 4.1% |
| Green | 776 | 1.7% |
| Other | 661 | 1.5% |