Mid and South Pembrokeshire
Official Parliament web pageCurrent MP
Name: Henry Tufnell
Party: Labour
Official Parliament web page
Who Can I Vote For?
They Work For You
2029 election
No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.
Projections
| Projection | Projected result | Description |
|---|---|---|
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 33.0%; Cons: 24.0%; PC: 16.0%; Lab: 14.0% |
| More in Common January 2026 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 30.0%; Cons: 25.0%; PC: 18.0%; Lab: 10.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 36.0%; Lab: 19.0%; Cons: 17.0%; PC: 10.0% |
| YouGov September 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 35.0%; Lab: 21.0%; Cons: 18.0% |
| More in Common September 2025 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 38.0%; Cons: 23.0%; Lab: 15.0%; PC: 10.0% |
| More in Common July 2025 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 36.0%; Lab: 17.0%; Cons: 15.0%; PC: 13.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 35.0%; Lab: 26.0%; Cons: 20.0% |
| YouGov June 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 31.0%; Cons: 20.0%; Lab: 20.0%; PC: 14.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 30.0%; Cons: 29.0%; Lab: 19.0% |
| More in Common April 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 33.0%; Cons: 32.0%; Lab: 19.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 29.0%; Cons: 28.0%; Lab: 23.0% |
| Focaldata Jan 2025 | Toss-up Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 28.0%; Lab: 25.0%; Ref: 24.0% |
| More in Common Dec 2024 | Likely Cons | Victory chances: Cons: 86.6%; Lab: 10.8% |
2024 results
Winning party: Labour
Majority: 1878 (4.02%)
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Tufnell | Labour Party | 16505 | 35.4% |
| Stephen Crabb | Conservative and Unionist Party | 14627 | 31.4% |
| Stuart Marchant | Reform UK | 7828 | 16.8% |
| Cris Tomos | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | 2962 | 6.4% |
| Alistair Cameron | Liberal Democrats | 2372 | 5.1% |
| James Henry Purchase | Green Party | 1654 | 3.5% |
| Vusi Siphika | Independent | 427 | 0.9% |
| Hanna Andersen | Women's Equality Party | 254 | 0.5% |
More details on "Who Can I Vote For?"
2019 notional results
(See the about page for more information about the nature of these results.)
Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 8621 (15.68%)
Turnout: 71.6%
| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 29072 | 52.9% |
| Labour | 20451 | 37.2% |
| Plaid Cymru | 2917 | 5.3% |
| Liberal Democrats | 2531 | 4.6% |