Ceredigion Preseli

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2026	Safe PC	Vote shares: PC: 47%; Ref: 20%; Green: 11%; LD: 11%
More in Common April 2026	Likely PC	Vote shares: PC: 36%; Ref: 19%; LD: 15%; Green: 14%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Likely PC	Vote shares: PC: 45%; Ref: 30%; LD: 11%
More in Common January 2026	Safe PC	Vote shares: PC: 42%; Ref: 17%; Cons: 15%; Green: 14%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Likely PC	Vote shares: PC: 46%; Ref: 28%; LD: 10%
YouGov September 2025	Safe PC	Vote shares: PC: 48%; Ref: 20%
More in Common September 2025	Likely PC	Vote shares: PC: 40%; Ref: 20%; Cons: 14%
More in Common July 2025	Safe PC	Vote shares: PC: 52%; Ref: 20%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Likely PC	Vote shares: PC: 39%; Ref: 23%; Cons: 12%; Lab: 11%
YouGov June 2025	Safe PC	Vote shares: PC: 50%; Ref: 20%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Likely PC	Vote shares: PC: 38%; Ref: 19%; Cons: 16%; LD: 11%
More in Common April 2025	Likely PC	Vote shares: PC: 39%; Ref: 19%; LD: 18%; Cons: 10%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Lean PC	Vote shares: PC: 34%; Ref: 24%; Cons: 11%; Lab: 11%; LD: 10%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Safe PC	Vote shares: PC: 47%; Ref: 16%; LD: 15%
More in Common Dec 2024	Safe PC	Victory chances: PC: 100%

Winning party: Plaid Cymru
Majority: 14789 (31.94%)
Turnout: 61.17%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Ben Lake	Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales	21738	46.9%
Mark Williams	Liberal Democrats	6949	15.0%
Jackie Jones	Labour and Co-operative Party	5386	11.6%
Karl Robert Pollard	Reform UK	5374	11.6%
Aled Thomas	Conservative and Unionist Party	4763	10.3%
Tomos Iwan Barlow	Green Party	1864	4.0%
Taghrid Al-Mawed	Workers Party of Britain	228	0.5%

(See the About page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Plaid Cymru
Majority: 1443 (2.79%)
Turnout: 69.8%