Caerphilly
Official Parliament web pageCurrent MP
Name: Chris Evans
Party: Labour
Official Parliament web page
Who Can I Vote For?
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2029 election
No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.
Projections
| Projection | Projected result | Description |
|---|---|---|
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2026 | Lean PC | Vote shares: PC: 40%; Ref: 31%; Green: 13% |
| More in Common April 2026 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 26%; PC: 23%; Lab: 20%; Green: 13%; Cons: 11% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 41%; PC: 33% |
| More in Common January 2026 | Toss-up Lab | Vote shares: Lab: 28%; Ref: 26%; PC: 23%; Cons: 12% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 34%; PC: 22%; Lab: 17% |
| YouGov September 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 32%; PC: 24%; Lab: 22% |
| More in Common September 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 31%; Lab: 23%; PC: 17%; LD: 12%; Cons: 11% |
| More in Common July 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 30%; PC: 26%; Lab: 16%; Cons: 11% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 32%; Lab: 24%; PC: 22%; Cons: 12% |
| YouGov June 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 32%; PC: 24%; Lab: 23% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 26%; Lab: 21%; Cons: 20%; PC: 18% |
| More in Common April 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 28%; Lab: 25%; Cons: 18%; PC: 17% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 31%; Lab: 22%; PC: 17%; Cons: 13% |
| Focaldata Jan 2025 | Toss-up Lab | Vote shares: Lab: 27%; Ref: 27%; PC: 22%; Cons: 11% |
| More in Common Dec 2024 | Safe Lab | Victory chances: Lab: 100% |
2024 results
Winning party: Labour
Majority: 6419 (16.78%)
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Evans | Labour and Co-operative Party | 14538 | 38.0% |
| Lindsey Geoffrey Whittle | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | 8119 | 21.2% |
| Joshua Seungkyun Kim | Reform UK | 7754 | 20.3% |
| Brandon Philip Gorman | Conservative and Unionist Party | 4385 | 11.5% |
| Steve Aicheler | Liberal Democrats | 1788 | 4.7% |
| Mark Thomas | Green Party | 1650 | 4.3% |
More details on "Who Can I Vote For?"
2019 notional results
(See the About page for more information about the nature of these results.)
Winning party: Labour
Majority: 6901 (15.31%)
Turnout: 62.2%
| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 19783 | 43.9% |
| Conservative | 12882 | 28.6% |
| Plaid Cymru | 6630 | 14.7% |
| Reform UK | 5287 | 11.7% |
| Liberal Democrats | 323 | 0.7% |
| Green | 164 | 0.4% |