Caerfyrddin

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Toss-up PC	Vote shares: PC: 41.0%; Ref: 40.0%
More in Common January 2026	Toss-up PC	Vote shares: PC: 34.0%; Ref: 28.0%; Cons: 19.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Toss-up PC	Vote shares: PC: 41.0%; Ref: 37.0%
YouGov September 2025	Toss-up PC	Vote shares: PC: 31.0%; Ref: 26.0%; Lab: 18.0%; Cons: 15.0%
More in Common September 2025	Toss-up PC	Vote shares: PC: 26.0%; Ref: 26.0%; Cons: 17.0%; Lab: 15.0%
More in Common July 2025	Lean PC	Vote shares: PC: 39.0%; Ref: 31.0%; Lab: 12.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Toss-up PC	Vote shares: PC: 30.0%; Ref: 27.0%; Lab: 17.0%; Cons: 16.0%
YouGov June 2025	Toss-up PC	Vote shares: PC: 34.0%; Ref: 30.0%; Lab: 13.0%; Cons: 10.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Toss-up PC	Vote shares: PC: 29.0%; Cons: 22.0%; Ref: 22.0%; Lab: 15.0%
More in Common April 2025	Toss-up PC	Vote shares: PC: 30.0%; Ref: 27.0%; Cons: 16.0%; Lab: 15.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 29.0%; PC: 25.0%; Cons: 18.0%; Lab: 15.0%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Lean PC	Vote shares: PC: 35.0%; Ref: 22.0%; Cons: 18.0%; Lab: 15.0%
More in Common Dec 2024	Safe PC	Victory chances: PC: 97.6%

Winning party: Plaid Cymru
Majority: 4535 (9.94%)
Turnout: 61.62%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Ann Davies	Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales	15520	34.0%
Martha Angharad O'Neil	Labour Party	10985	24.1%
Simon Hart	Conservative and Unionist Party	8825	19.4%
Bernard Holton	Reform UK	6944	15.2%
Nicholas Paul Beckett	Liberal Democrats	1461	3.2%
Will Beasley	Green Party	1371	3.0%
Nancy Cole	Women's Equality Party	282	0.6%
David Mark Evans	Workers Party of Britain	216	0.5%

(See the about page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 4529 (8.49%)
Turnout: 73.4%