Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2026	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 24%; Ref: 20%; Cons: 17%; PC: 16%; Green: 10%
More in Common April 2026	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 25%; Ref: 24%; Cons: 22%; Green: 12%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 26%; Cons: 22%; LD: 21%; Lab: 13%; PC: 10%
More in Common January 2026	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 28%; Cons: 21%; PC: 18%; Lab: 13%; LD: 12%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 32%; LD: 18%; Cons: 14%; Lab: 14%
YouGov September 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 28%; LD: 26%; Cons: 15%; Lab: 12%
More in Common September 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 35%; Cons: 19%; LD: 17%; PC: 12%
More in Common July 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 34%; LD: 19%; Lab: 16%; PC: 16%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 26%; LD: 22%; Cons: 19%; Lab: 19%; PC: 11%
YouGov June 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 26%; LD: 25%; Cons: 16%; PC: 15%; Lab: 12%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 27%; Ref: 26%; LD: 19%; Lab: 13%
More in Common April 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 38%; Cons: 22%; LD: 21%; Lab: 12%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 28%; Cons: 22%; Lab: 20%; LD: 15%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 28%; Cons: 26%; Ref: 23%; Lab: 12%
More in Common Dec 2024	Likely LD	Victory chances: LD: 82%

Winning party: Liberal Democrats
Majority: 1472 (3.16%)
Turnout: 63.66%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
David Chadwick	Liberal Democrats	13736	29.5%
Fay Jones	Conservative and Unionist Party	12264	26.3%
Matthew Dorrance	Labour Party	9904	21.3%
Adam Hill	Reform UK	6567	14.1%
Emily Durrant-Munro	Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales	2280	4.9%
Amerjit Dhaliwal	Green Party	1188	2.6%
Jonathan Harrington	Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party	372	0.8%
Lady Lily The Pink	The Official Monster Raving Loony Party	237	0.5%

(See the About page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 9091 (17.39%)
Turnout: 72.5%