Aberafan Maesteg
Official Parliament web pageCurrent MP
Name: Stephen Kinnock
Party: Labour
Official Parliament web page
Who Can I Vote For?
They Work For You
2029 election
No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.
Projections
| Projection | Projected result | Description |
|---|---|---|
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 36.0%; PC: 21.0%; Lab: 18.0%; Cons: 10.0% |
| More in Common January 2026 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 42.0%; PC: 18.0%; Lab: 16.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 39.0%; Lab: 24.0%; PC: 11.0% |
| YouGov September 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 31.0%; Lab: 24.0%; PC: 24.0% |
| More in Common September 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 40.0%; Lab: 26.0% |
| More in Common July 2025 | Likely Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 39.0%; Lab: 21.0%; LD: 14.0%; PC: 13.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 39.0%; Lab: 28.0%; PC: 13.0% |
| YouGov June 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 34.0%; Lab: 31.0%; PC: 13.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 27.0%; Lab: 26.0%; Cons: 16.0%; PC: 15.0% |
| More in Common April 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 32.0%; Lab: 24.0%; Cons: 19.0%; PC: 10.0% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 30.0%; Lab: 28.0%; PC: 18.0%; Cons: 11.0% |
| Focaldata Jan 2025 | Toss-up Lab | Vote shares: Lab: 38.0%; Ref: 31.0%; PC: 12.0% |
| More in Common Dec 2024 | Lean Ref | Victory chances: Ref: 74.0%; Lab: 20.8% |
2024 results
Winning party: Labour
Majority: 10354 (28.95%)
Turnout: 49.26%
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Kinnock | Labour Party | 17838 | 49.9% |
| Mark Griffiths | Reform UK | 7484 | 20.9% |
| Colin Deere | Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales | 4719 | 13.2% |
| Abigail Mainon | Conservative and Unionist Party | 2903 | 8.1% |
| Nigel Bartolotti Hill | Green Party | 1094 | 3.1% |
| Justin Griffiths | Liberal Democrats | 916 | 2.6% |
| Captain Beany | Independent | 618 | 1.7% |
| Rhiannon Morrissey | Heritage Party | 183 | 0.5% |
More details on "Who Can I Vote For?"
2019 notional results
(See the about page for more information about the nature of these results.)
Winning party: Labour
Majority: 13457 (30.29%)
Turnout: 63.6%
| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 23509 | 52.9% |
| Conservative | 10052 | 22.6% |
| Plaid Cymru | 3991 | 9.0% |
| Reform UK | 3794 | 8.5% |
| Liberal Democrats | 1645 | 3.7% |
| Other | 731 | 1.6% |
| Green | 701 | 1.6% |