Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 27.0%; Ref: 24.0%; Cons: 20.0%; Lab: 17.0%
More in Common January 2026	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 32.0%; Ref: 25.0%; Cons: 20.0%; Lab: 12.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 40.0%; Ref: 37.0%
YouGov September 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 30.0%; Lab: 22.0%; SNP: 22.0%; Cons: 12.0%
More in Common September 2025	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 30.0%; Ref: 24.0%; Lab: 20.0%; Cons: 16.0%
More in Common July 2025	Toss-up Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 33.0%; SNP: 28.0%; Cons: 16.0%; Ref: 14.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 28.0%; Lab: 25.0%; Cons: 21.0%; Ref: 16.0%
YouGov June 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 28.0%; Lab: 22.0%; SNP: 21.0%; Cons: 15.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 28.0%; Lab: 24.0%; Cons: 21.0%; Ref: 17.0%
More in Common April 2025	Toss-up Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 30.0%; Cons: 23.0%; SNP: 22.0%; Ref: 13.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 29.0%; Lab: 23.0%; Cons: 20.0%; Ref: 16.0%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 28.0%; Cons: 23.0%; Lab: 23.0%; Ref: 17.0%
More in Common Dec 2024	Lean SNP	Victory chances: SNP: 64.2%; Cons: 32.0%

Winning party: Labour
Majority: 4154 (10.14%)
Turnout: 58.20%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Elaine Stewart	Labour Party	14930	36.5%
Allan Dorans	Scottish National Party (SNP)	10776	26.3%
Martin Dowey	Conservative and Unionist Party	9247	22.6%
Andrew Russell	Reform UK	3544	8.7%
Paul Kennedy	Liberal Democrats	1081	2.6%
Korin Matthew Vallance	Scottish Green Party	886	2.2%
Corri Wilson	Alba Party	472	1.2%

(See the about page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Scottish National
Majority: 2329 (4.99%)
Turnout: 64.7%