Paisley and Renfrewshire South

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 32.0%; Ref: 25.0%; Lab: 24.0%
More in Common January 2026	Likely SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 42.0%; Ref: 18.0%; Lab: 17.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 33.0%; Ref: 27.0%; Lab: 25.0%
YouGov September 2025	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 32.0%; Lab: 27.0%; Ref: 21.0%
More in Common September 2025	Lean SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 35.0%; Lab: 23.0%; Ref: 16.0%
More in Common July 2025	Lean SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 40.0%; Lab: 27.0%; Ref: 13.0%; LD: 10.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Toss-up Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 35.0%; SNP: 34.0%; Ref: 15.0%
YouGov June 2025	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 30.0%; Lab: 29.0%; Ref: 21.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Toss-up Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 34.0%; SNP: 34.0%; Ref: 16.0%
More in Common April 2025	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 30.0%; Lab: 24.0%; Cons: 20.0%; Ref: 12.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Toss-up SNP	Vote shares: SNP: 35.0%; Lab: 33.0%; Ref: 14.0%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Lean Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 36.0%; SNP: 27.0%; Ref: 15.0%
More in Common Dec 2024	Lean SNP	Victory chances: SNP: 52.6%; Cons: 40.8%

Winning party: Labour
Majority: 6527 (15.81%)
Turnout: 57.68%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Johanna Baxter	Labour Party	19583	47.4%
Jacqueline Cameron	Scottish National Party (SNP)	13056	31.6%
Jim McIlroy	Reform UK	2956	7.2%
Alec Leishman	Conservative and Unionist Party	2219	5.4%
Athol Bond	Scottish Green Party	1724	4.2%
Jack Clark	Liberal Democrats	1315	3.2%
Paul Mack	Independent	317	0.8%
Mark Turnbull	Freedom Alliance	113	0.3%

(See the about page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Scottish National
Majority: 11023 (23.92%)
Turnout: 66%