York Outer

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Toss-up Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 29.0%; Cons: 23.0%; Ref: 23.0%; LD: 13.0%; Green: 10.0%
More in Common January 2026	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 30.0%; Cons: 24.0%; Lab: 24.0%; LD: 11.0%; Green: 10.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Toss-up Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 45.0%; Ref: 40.0%
YouGov September 2025	Toss-up Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 28.0%; Ref: 27.0%; LD: 16.0%; Cons: 15.0%; Green: 11.0%
More in Common September 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 29.0%; Lab: 24.0%; Cons: 21.0%; LD: 13.0%; Green: 10.0%
More in Common July 2025	Toss-up Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 29.0%; Cons: 24.0%; LD: 21.0%; Ref: 19.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Toss-up Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 33.0%; Ref: 30.0%; Cons: 18.0%; LD: 11.0%
YouGov June 2025	Toss-up Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 29.0%; Ref: 24.0%; Cons: 20.0%; LD: 15.0%; Green: 11.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Toss-up Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 30.0%; Ref: 25.0%; Cons: 24.0%; LD: 12.0%
More in Common April 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 28.0%; Lab: 25.0%; Ref: 23.0%; LD: 14.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Lean Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 35.0%; Ref: 23.0%; Cons: 21.0%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Toss-up Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 33.0%; Cons: 27.0%; Ref: 22.0%; LD: 12.0%
More in Common Dec 2024	Safe Lab	Victory chances: Lab: 100.0%

Winning party: Labour
Majority: 9391 (18.37%)
Turnout: 67.04%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Luke Charters	Labour Party	23161	45.3%
Julian Sturdy	Conservative and Unionist Party	13770	26.9%
John Edward Crispin-Bailey	Reform UK	5912	11.6%
Andrew Hollyer	Liberal Democrats	5496	10.8%
Michael Robin Kearney	Green Party	2212	4.3%
David James Eadington	Yorkshire Party	260	0.5%
Keith Andrew Hayden	Independent	141	0.3%
Hal Aenas Mayne	Independent	88	0.2%
Darren Borrows	Independent	66	0.1%

(See the about page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 10782 (19.69%)
Turnout: 75.3%