Thornbury and Yate

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2026	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 29%; LD: 26%; Ref: 23%
More in Common April 2026	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 29%; Cons: 27%; Ref: 27%; Lab: 11%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 28%; Ref: 28%; Cons: 23%
More in Common January 2026	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 28%; Ref: 28%; Cons: 27%; Lab: 10%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 37%; LD: 36%; Cons: 16%
YouGov September 2025	Lean LD	Vote shares: LD: 37%; Ref: 25%; Cons: 22%
More in Common September 2025	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 34%; Ref: 30%; Cons: 25%
More in Common July 2025	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 34%; Cons: 29%; Ref: 20%; Lab: 13%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 32%; Cons: 28%; Ref: 23%; Lab: 10%
YouGov June 2025	Lean LD	Vote shares: LD: 38%; Ref: 24%; Cons: 22%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 31%; LD: 27%; Ref: 24%; Lab: 11%
More in Common April 2025	Lean LD	Vote shares: LD: 39%; Cons: 27%; Ref: 19%; Lab: 10%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 32%; Cons: 28%; Ref: 22%; Lab: 10%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 34%; Cons: 32%; Ref: 20%
More in Common Dec 2024	Lean Cons	Victory chances: Cons: 51%; LD: 49%

Winning party: Liberal Democrats
Majority: 3014 (5.64%)
Turnout: 68.25%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Claire Young	Liberal Democrats	20815	39.0%
Luke Hall	Conservative and Unionist Party	17801	33.4%
Andy Banwell	Reform UK	7529	14.1%
Rob Logan	Labour Party	5057	9.5%
Alexandra Jenner-Fust	Green Party	2165	4.1%

(See the About page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 14538 (25.92%)
Turnout: 74.8%