South Holland and The Deepings

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 46.0%; Cons: 39.0%
More in Common January 2026	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 48.0%; Cons: 28.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 52.0%; Cons: 30.0%
YouGov September 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 42.0%; Cons: 27.0%; Lab: 11.0%
More in Common September 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 43.0%; Cons: 28.0%; LD: 10.0%
More in Common July 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 38.0%; Cons: 24.0%; LD: 13.0%; Lab: 11.0%; Other: 10.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 46.0%; Cons: 23.0%; Lab: 11.0%; Other: 10.0%
YouGov June 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 39.0%; Cons: 27.0%; Lab: 14.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 42.0%; Cons: 29.0%; Lab: 11.0%
More in Common April 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 36.0%; Cons: 30.0%; Lab: 15.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 38.0%; Cons: 31.0%; Other: 12.0%; Lab: 10.0%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Lean Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 39.0%; Ref: 30.0%; Lab: 16.0%
More in Common Dec 2024	Safe Cons	Victory chances: Cons: 100.0%

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 6856 (14.92%)
Turnout: 58.53%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
John Hayes	Conservative and Unionist Party	17462	38.0%
Matt Swainson	Reform UK	10606	23.1%
Paul Hilliar	Labour Party	9086	19.8%
Mark Edward Le Sage	Independent	5031	11.0%
Jack Braginton	Liberal Democrats	1945	4.2%
Rhys Rhobat Baker	Green Party	1800	3.9%

(See the about page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 30838 (62.70%)
Turnout: 64.6%