Orpington
Official Parliament web pageCurrent MP
Name: Gareth Bacon
Party: Conservative
Official Parliament web page
Who Can I Vote For?
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2029 election
No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.
Projections
| Projection | Projected result | Description |
|---|---|---|
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2026 | Likely Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 43%; Ref: 28% |
| More in Common April 2026 | Toss-up Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 33%; Ref: 27%; Lab: 17%; LD: 12% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026 | Lean Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 43%; Ref: 34% |
| More in Common January 2026 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Cons: 33%; Ref: 33%; Lab: 18% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 40%; Cons: 38% |
| YouGov September 2025 | Toss-up Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 30%; Ref: 29%; Lab: 16%; LD: 13% |
| More in Common September 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 32%; Cons: 30%; Lab: 15%; LD: 14% |
| More in Common July 2025 | Lean Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 37%; Cons: 28%; Lab: 19% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 35%; Cons: 28%; Lab: 17%; LD: 12% |
| YouGov June 2025 | Toss-up Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 30%; Ref: 29%; Lab: 18%; LD: 13% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025 | Lean Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 35%; Ref: 27%; Lab: 18%; LD: 10% |
| More in Common April 2025 | Toss-up Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 32%; Ref: 28%; Lab: 21%; LD: 12% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025 | Lean Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 38%; Ref: 27%; Lab: 16%; LD: 10% |
| Focaldata Jan 2025 | Lean Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 37%; Lab: 23%; Ref: 23%; LD: 10% |
| More in Common Dec 2024 | Safe Cons | Victory chances: Cons: 100% |
2024 results
Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 5118 (11.10%)
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gareth Bacon | Conservative and Unionist Party | 17504 | 38.0% |
| Ju Owens | Labour Party | 12386 | 26.9% |
| Mark Bradley James | Reform UK | 8896 | 19.3% |
| Graeme Lee Casey | Liberal Democrats | 4728 | 10.3% |
| Seamus McCauley | Green Party | 2319 | 5.0% |
| John Hunter Bright | Social Democratic Party | 240 | 0.5% |
More details on "Who Can I Vote For?"
2019 notional results
(See the About page for more information about the nature of these results.)
Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 20627 (42.13%)
Turnout: 68.4%
| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 30308 | 61.9% |
| Labour | 9681 | 19.8% |
| Liberal Democrats | 7145 | 14.6% |
| Green | 1824 | 3.7% |