Hertsmere
Official Parliament web pageCurrent MP
Name: Oliver Dowden
Party: Conservative
Official Parliament web page
Who Can I Vote For?
They Work For You
2029 election
No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.
Projections
| Projection | Projected result | Description |
|---|---|---|
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2026 | Likely Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 46%; Ref: 28% |
| More in Common April 2026 | Lean Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 38%; Ref: 27%; Lab: 17% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026 | Lean Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 45%; Ref: 33%; Lab: 10% |
| More in Common January 2026 | Lean Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 39%; Ref: 28%; Lab: 18% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025 | Toss-up Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 42%; Ref: 36% |
| YouGov September 2025 | Lean Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 36%; Ref: 25%; Lab: 17%; LD: 11% |
| More in Common September 2025 | Lean Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 36%; Ref: 27%; Lab: 15%; LD: 13% |
| More in Common July 2025 | Toss-up Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 34%; Ref: 33%; Lab: 17% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025 | Toss-up Ref | Vote shares: Ref: 32%; Cons: 31%; Lab: 17%; LD: 11% |
| YouGov June 2025 | Lean Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 36%; Ref: 24%; Lab: 19%; LD: 11% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025 | Lean Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 38%; Ref: 24%; Lab: 18% |
| More in Common April 2025 | Likely Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 44%; Ref: 22%; Lab: 21% |
| ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025 | Likely Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 42%; Ref: 23%; Lab: 16% |
| Focaldata Jan 2025 | Likely Cons | Vote shares: Cons: 43%; Ref: 21%; Lab: 20%; LD: 10% |
| More in Common Dec 2024 | Safe Cons | Victory chances: Cons: 100% |
2024 results
Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 7992 (16.64%)
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Dowden | Conservative and Unionist Party | 21451 | 44.7% |
| Josh Tapper | Labour Party | 13459 | 28.0% |
| Darren Selkus | Reform UK | 6584 | 13.7% |
| Emma Matanle | Liberal Democrats | 3710 | 7.7% |
| John Humphries | Green Party | 2267 | 4.7% |
| Ray Bolster | Independent | 536 | 1.1% |
More details on "Who Can I Vote For?"
2019 notional results
(See the About page for more information about the nature of these results.)
Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 22980 (43.76%)
Turnout: 71.7%
| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 34083 | 64.9% |
| Labour | 11103 | 21.1% |
| Liberal Democrats | 5713 | 10.9% |
| Green | 1614 | 3.1% |