Henley and Thame

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2026	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 31%; Cons: 29%; Ref: 19%
More in Common April 2026	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 33%; Cons: 27%; Ref: 21%; Lab: 10%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 30%; Cons: 26%; Ref: 24%
More in Common January 2026	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 30%; Ref: 23%; LD: 22%; Green: 13%; Lab: 10%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Lean LD	Vote shares: LD: 34%; Ref: 26%; Cons: 24%
YouGov September 2025	Likely LD	Vote shares: LD: 42%; Ref: 22%; Cons: 21%
More in Common September 2025	Lean LD	Vote shares: LD: 37%; Cons: 27%; Ref: 21%
More in Common July 2025	Lean LD	Vote shares: LD: 39%; Cons: 30%; Ref: 14%; Lab: 10%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Lean LD	Vote shares: LD: 37%; Cons: 28%; Ref: 18%
YouGov June 2025	Safe LD	Vote shares: LD: 47%; Cons: 21%; Ref: 19%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 33%; Cons: 30%; Ref: 21%
More in Common April 2025	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: Cons: 34%; LD: 34%; Ref: 13%; Lab: 12%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 36%; Cons: 31%; Ref: 17%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Lean LD	Vote shares: LD: 40%; Cons: 32%; Ref: 17%
More in Common Dec 2024	Lean LD	Victory chances: LD: 73%; Cons: 27%

Winning party: Liberal Democrats
Majority: 6267 (11.78%)
Turnout: 72.08%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Freddie van Mierlo	Liberal Democrats	23904	45.0%
Caroline Newton	Conservative and Unionist Party	17637	33.2%
Peter Shields	Reform UK	5213	9.8%
Nanda Manley-Browne	Labour Party	3574	6.7%
Jo Robb	Green Party	2008	3.8%
Maryse Pomlett	Social Democratic Party	515	1.0%
David Carpin	Independent	306	0.6%

(See the About page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 11901 (22.10%)
Turnout: 76.2%