Gainsborough

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 40.0%; Ref: 40.0%; Lab: 10.0%
More in Common January 2026	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 37.0%; Cons: 29.0%; Lab: 14.0%; LD: 11.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 45.0%; Cons: 29.0%; Lab: 10.0%
YouGov September 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 36.0%; Cons: 25.0%; Lab: 15.0%; LD: 13.0%
More in Common September 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 40.0%; Cons: 27.0%; LD: 15.0%; Lab: 14.0%
More in Common July 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 36.0%; Cons: 28.0%; Lab: 17.0%; LD: 15.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 42.0%; Cons: 24.0%; Lab: 17.0%; LD: 11.0%
YouGov June 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 33.0%; Cons: 26.0%; Lab: 17.0%; LD: 13.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 38.0%; Cons: 28.0%; Lab: 16.0%; LD: 11.0%
More in Common April 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 32.0%; Cons: 31.0%; Lab: 18.0%; LD: 13.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 34.0%; Cons: 30.0%; Lab: 17.0%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 33.0%; Ref: 31.0%; Lab: 20.0%; LD: 11.0%
More in Common Dec 2024	Safe Cons	Victory chances: Cons: 100.0%

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 3532 (7.56%)
Turnout: 61.56%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Edward Leigh	Conservative and Unionist Party	16636	35.6%
Jess McGuire	Labour Party	13104	28.1%
Pat O'Connor	Reform UK	9916	21.2%
Lesley Rollings	Liberal Democrats	5001	10.7%
Vanessa Smith	Green Party	1832	3.9%
Tim Bray Mellors	Social Democratic Party	196	0.4%

(See the about page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 22172 (45.13%)
Turnout: 65.7%