Gainsborough

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2026	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 41%; Ref: 35%
More in Common April 2026	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 37%; Cons: 30%; Lab: 15%; LD: 12%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 40%; Ref: 40%; Lab: 10%
More in Common January 2026	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 37%; Cons: 29%; Lab: 14%; LD: 11%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 45%; Cons: 29%; Lab: 10%
YouGov September 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 36%; Cons: 25%; Lab: 15%; LD: 13%
More in Common September 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 40%; Cons: 27%; LD: 15%; Lab: 14%
More in Common July 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 36%; Cons: 28%; Lab: 17%; LD: 15%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 42%; Cons: 24%; Lab: 17%; LD: 11%
YouGov June 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 33%; Cons: 26%; Lab: 17%; LD: 13%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 38%; Cons: 28%; Lab: 16%; LD: 11%
More in Common April 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 32%; Cons: 31%; Lab: 18%; LD: 13%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 34%; Cons: 30%; Lab: 17%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 33%; Ref: 31%; Lab: 20%; LD: 11%
More in Common Dec 2024	Safe Cons	Victory chances: Cons: 100%

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 3532 (7.56%)
Turnout: 61.56%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Edward Leigh	Conservative and Unionist Party	16636	35.6%
Jess McGuire	Labour Party	13104	28.1%
Pat O'Connor	Reform UK	9916	21.2%
Lesley Rollings	Liberal Democrats	5001	10.7%
Vanessa Smith	Green Party	1832	3.9%
Tim Bray Mellors	Social Democratic Party	196	0.4%

(See the About page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 22172 (45.13%)
Turnout: 65.7%