Eastleigh

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 28.0%; Cons: 23.0%; LD: 23.0%; Lab: 12.0%
More in Common January 2026	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 28.0%; LD: 25.0%; Cons: 24.0%; Lab: 13.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 36.0%; LD: 28.0%; Cons: 14.0%; Lab: 11.0%
YouGov September 2025	Lean LD	Vote shares: LD: 32.0%; Ref: 24.0%; Cons: 22.0%; Lab: 10.0%
More in Common September 2025	Lean LD	Vote shares: LD: 34.0%; Ref: 26.0%; Cons: 23.0%
More in Common July 2025	Lean LD	Vote shares: LD: 35.0%; Cons: 25.0%; Ref: 20.0%; Lab: 15.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 28.0%; Ref: 27.0%; Cons: 22.0%; Lab: 15.0%
YouGov June 2025	Toss-up LD	Vote shares: LD: 31.0%; Ref: 24.0%; Cons: 22.0%; Lab: 12.0%; Green: 10.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 29.0%; LD: 24.0%; Ref: 23.0%; Lab: 14.0%
More in Common April 2025	Lean LD	Vote shares: LD: 37.0%; Cons: 24.0%; Ref: 18.0%; Lab: 13.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 25.0%; Ref: 24.0%; LD: 23.0%; Lab: 17.0%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 30.0%; LD: 30.0%; Ref: 23.0%; Lab: 12.0%
More in Common Dec 2024	Safe Cons	Victory chances: Cons: 99.4%

Winning party: Liberal Democrats
Majority: 1546 (3.33%)
Turnout: 66.35%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Liz Jarvis	Liberal Democrats	15970	34.4%
Samuel Joynson	Conservative and Unionist Party	14424	31.1%
Daniel Shearer	Labour Party	7005	15.1%
Clare Lorraine Fawcett	Reform UK	6151	13.3%
Ben David Parry	Green Party	2403	5.2%
Russ Kitching	Independent	467	1.0%

(See the about page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 8641 (17.43%)
Turnout: 70.8%