Christchurch

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 43.0%; Ref: 38.0%
More in Common January 2026	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 43.0%; Cons: 28.0%; LD: 10.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 42.0%; Cons: 37.0%
YouGov September 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 36.0%; Cons: 22.0%; LD: 22.0%; Lab: 10.0%
More in Common September 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 39.0%; Cons: 27.0%; LD: 18.0%
More in Common July 2025	Toss-up Ref	Vote shares: Cons: 28.0%; Ref: 28.0%; LD: 24.0%; Lab: 14.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 36.0%; Cons: 26.0%; LD: 16.0%; Lab: 12.0%
YouGov June 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 33.0%; LD: 25.0%; Cons: 23.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 33.0%; Ref: 28.0%; LD: 16.0%; Lab: 12.0%
More in Common April 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 28.0%; Ref: 28.0%; LD: 19.0%; Lab: 14.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Lean Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 36.0%; Ref: 27.0%; LD: 15.0%; Lab: 11.0%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 36.0%; Ref: 29.0%; LD: 18.0%; Lab: 12.0%
More in Common Dec 2024	Safe Cons	Victory chances: Cons: 100.0%

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 7455 (15.74%)
Turnout: 66.61%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Christopher Chope	Conservative and Unionist Party	16941	35.8%
Mike Cox	Liberal Democrats	9486	20.0%
Robin Adamson	Reform UK	8961	18.9%
Joanna Howard	Labour Party	7762	16.4%
Susan Graham	Green Party	1900	4.0%
Simon McCormack	Independent	1728	3.7%
Sasha Jolliffe Yasawi	Animal Welfare Party	335	0.7%
Steve Unwin	UK Independence Party (UKIP)	163	0.3%
Trevor Parsons	Social Democratic Party	59	0.1%

(See the about page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 25034 (48.24%)
Turnout: 72.5%