Carlisle

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2026	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 31%; Cons: 20%; Lab: 19%; Green: 15%; LD: 10%
More in Common April 2026	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 37%; Cons: 24%; Lab: 19%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 37%; Cons: 23%; Lab: 20%; Green: 10%
More in Common January 2026	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 39%; Cons: 23%; Lab: 18%; LD: 10%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 43%; Lab: 19%; Cons: 18%
YouGov September 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 36%; Lab: 23%; Cons: 17%; LD: 10%
More in Common September 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 42%; Lab: 21%; Cons: 20%; LD: 11%
More in Common July 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 38%; Lab: 22%; Cons: 21%; LD: 14%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 38%; Lab: 23%; Cons: 21%
YouGov June 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 34%; Lab: 24%; Cons: 19%; Green: 10%; LD: 10%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 35%; Cons: 26%; Lab: 23%
More in Common April 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 35%; Cons: 25%; Lab: 21%; LD: 12%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 32%; Cons: 24%; Lab: 23%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Toss-up Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 31%; Cons: 29%; Ref: 28%
More in Common Dec 2024	Safe Cons	Victory chances: Cons: 96%

Winning party: Labour
Majority: 5200 (11.30%)
Turnout: 59.05%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Julie Minns	Labour Party	18129	39.4%
John Stevenson	Conservative and Unionist Party	12929	28.1%
Stephen Ward	Reform UK	9295	20.2%
Brian Wernham	Liberal Democrats	2982	6.5%
Gavin Hawkton	Green Party	1922	4.2%
Sean Clifford Reed	Independent	303	0.7%
Rachel Hayton	Social Democratic Party	244	0.5%
Thomas Alexander Ben Lynestrider	Independent	175	0.4%

(See the About page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 11290 (22.03%)
Turnout: 67.5%