Carlisle

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 37.0%; Cons: 23.0%; Lab: 20.0%; Green: 10.0%
More in Common January 2026	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 39.0%; Cons: 23.0%; Lab: 18.0%; LD: 10.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 43.0%; Lab: 19.0%; Cons: 18.0%
YouGov September 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 36.0%; Lab: 23.0%; Cons: 17.0%; LD: 10.0%
More in Common September 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 42.0%; Lab: 21.0%; Cons: 20.0%; LD: 11.0%
More in Common July 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 38.0%; Lab: 22.0%; Cons: 21.0%; LD: 14.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Likely Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 38.0%; Lab: 23.0%; Cons: 21.0%
YouGov June 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 34.0%; Lab: 24.0%; Cons: 19.0%; Green: 10.0%; LD: 10.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 35.0%; Cons: 26.0%; Lab: 23.0%
More in Common April 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 35.0%; Cons: 25.0%; Lab: 21.0%; LD: 12.0%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Lean Ref	Vote shares: Ref: 32.0%; Cons: 24.0%; Lab: 23.0%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Toss-up Lab	Vote shares: Lab: 31.0%; Cons: 29.0%; Ref: 28.0%
More in Common Dec 2024	Safe Cons	Victory chances: Cons: 96.4%

Winning party: Labour
Majority: 5200 (11.30%)
Turnout: 59.05%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Julie Minns	Labour Party	18129	39.4%
John Stevenson	Conservative and Unionist Party	12929	28.1%
Stephen Ward	Reform UK	9295	20.2%
Brian Wernham	Liberal Democrats	2982	6.5%
Gavin Hawkton	Green Party	1922	4.2%
Sean Clifford Reed	Independent	303	0.7%
Rachel Hayton	Social Democratic Party	244	0.5%
Thomas Alexander Ben Lynestrider	Independent	175	0.4%

(See the about page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 11290 (22.03%)
Turnout: 67.5%