Arundel and South Downs

Current MP

No candidates have been declared for 2029 yet.

Projection	Projected result	Description
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2026	Lean Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 40%; Ref: 32%
More in Common April 2026	Lean Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 34%; Ref: 24%; LD: 15%; Green: 14%; Lab: 12%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR January 2026	Likely Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 47%; Ref: 31%
More in Common January 2026	Lean Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 35%; Ref: 26%; Green: 20%; Lab: 10%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR October 2025	Lean Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 42%; Ref: 34%
YouGov September 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 29%; Ref: 26%; LD: 19%; Green: 13%; Lab: 11%
More in Common September 2025	Lean Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 33%; Ref: 25%; Green: 15%; LD: 14%; Lab: 11%
More in Common July 2025	Likely Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 36%; Ref: 21%; LD: 16%; Green: 15%; Lab: 12%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR June 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 30%; Ref: 29%; LD: 16%; Lab: 13%
YouGov June 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 30%; Ref: 26%; LD: 20%; Green: 13%; Lab: 11%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR April 2025	Toss-up Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 33%; Ref: 26%; LD: 16%; Lab: 14%; Green: 11%
More in Common April 2025	Likely Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 40%; Ref: 19%; Green: 15%; Lab: 15%; LD: 10%
ElectoralCalculus/PLMR Feb 2025	Likely Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 39%; Ref: 21%; LD: 15%; Lab: 13%; Green: 10%
Focaldata Jan 2025	Likely Cons	Vote shares: Cons: 39%; Ref: 21%; LD: 18%; Lab: 12%; Green: 10%
More in Common Dec 2024	Safe Cons	Victory chances: Cons: 100%

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 12134 (22.16%)
Turnout: 70.21%

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Andrew Griffith	Conservative and Unionist Party	22001	40.2%
Richard James Allen	Liberal Democrats	9867	18.0%
Chris Philipsborn	Labour Party	9782	17.9%
David Thomas	Reform UK	7391	13.5%
Steve McAuliffe	Green Party	5515	10.1%
Mike Smith	Social Democratic Party	184	0.3%

(See the About page for more information about the nature of these results.)

Winning party: Conservative
Majority: 24105 (41.48%)
Turnout: 75.5%